2018 is waning and coming to a close. The new year 2019 is at our doorstep. Only about a month and half is left before stepping into the new year. It is time to look back at the year that would be forever lost in the void of time, to try and realize what things pulsated our people and country most in this outgoing year. This exercise is important for us to detect what lies in store for us in the new year for the roots of the future, even the immediate future, are to be traced to the past.
From the experiences of 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018, it can be said with some surety that 2019does not promise to be any smoother for Bangladesh than the previous years. The challenges to the country that surfaced in 2014 are most likely to be carried over into the next year unless of course some astonishing developments occur in the meantime or the authorities in charge of running Bangladesh can decisively and effectively cope with the troubles.
Both possibilities are remote. The incumbents in power in Bangladesh are unlikely to give in any time soon to the demands of the quarters over holding national elections in coming December. They are out to exert pressure on the present government leading to its downfall that would pave the way for the latter to carry out their designs in the post downfall period. It is veryunlikely that the external and local challengers to the current government in Bangladesh will simply tire in their efforts and give up or withdraw.
Thus, a rather stalemated situation can be expected in 2019 with one side struggling hard to hold sway over the other with neither succeeding fully. In such a situation, we are likely to see more of the same of what we have been witnessing -more tensions and potential drifts towards violence and more tougher responses to the same. However, in this see-saw battles neither side is likely to emerge as the complete victor or the vanquished.
All probabilities are there that this government will prove to be more resilient than expected and endure after seemingly claiming victory in the upcoming election while its challengers could step up their deadly or sinister activities but falling short of attaining their goals. Needless to say, the people, the economy, the society and polity of Bangladesh will be caught in this ‘war of attrition’ of sorts and suffer badly.
Bangladesh was having relatively smooth sailing till about two months ago. But as the date for inescapable holding of national elections has neared, the portents are showing up that it won’t be better than 2014. This tine the disgruntled BNP will join the polls.But it will do so while maintaining that it is part of their political struggle and on being vanquished would surely resume agitation and reject the result of the polls. Thus, another election after an election exercise may lead to formation of a government in late 2018. But that government would continue to be haunted in its aim of finding the well deserved political legitimacy. The new government would continue to suffer from its opposition’s non stop allegations and vilifications that it cheated its way afresh to power and, therefore, deserves not a moment to be in power. Thus 2019 could turn out to be politically more tumultuous than the preceding year in all respects.