As is the case in the Israeli spy thriller TV series “Tehran,” which is currently in its second season, in real life Israel and Iran are heading for some sort of crescendo in their relations. One can hardly tell whether art is imitating life or life imitating art in this downward spiral toward a full-fledged confrontation that neither side can win.
More worrying is the fact that the road to an endgame remains unclear, leaving room for further enthralling, but dangerous, episodes ahead. In this nail-biting real-life drama, it is impossible to imagine a happy ending any time soon unless both sides, sooner rather than later, recognize that they are marching toward an abyss of direct confrontation that will severely damage both of them.
Last week, dozens of Israeli Air Force fighter jets conducted simulated airstrike exercises. Afterward, the Israeli Defense Forces explained that these included “long-range flight, aerial refueling and striking distant targets,” leaving no room for doubt about which country and targets this drill was in preparation for.
The exercises took place against the backdrop of the death in mysterious circumstances of a high-ranking Iranian colonel, Ali Esmaelzadeh, only days after a fellow officer, Col. Sayad Khodayee, was killed in a drive-by shooting in Tehran. Furthermore, Iranian media outlets reported last weekend that two more senior scientists, one of whom was responsible for several major aviation projects and another who worked at the Natanz nuclear facility, have died in unclear circumstances.
At this point, the working assumption is that Israel was behind the deaths and, considering its track record of alleged assassinations in Iran, its denial of involvement in the killings is being met with skepticism. But it still remains unclear whether there is a grand, long-term strategy behind these assassinations or whether Israel is letting it be known to all that it is planning a military operation in Iran.
Israel’s view of Iran as an existential threat and a major source of instability in the region is well documented. Israeli authorities are adamant that Tehran should never acquire nuclear military capability, or have any unchallenged presence close to Israel’s borders, either directly or through a proxy.
Just last week, during a meeting with Rafael Grossi, head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett made clear his view that Tehran is concealing its true intentions of developing nuclear military capability behind “false information and lies.”

Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House.