Md Tarek Hossain: Since the political upheaval following the July 2024 uprising, Bangladesh’s economy has faced a delicate balancing act. While reforms and government initiatives have sparked optimism, persistent challenges continue to test growth and stability. Recent data paints a picture of cautious progress, underlining both the potential and the vulnerabilities of the nation’s economic landscape.

One of the most encouraging signs has been the rise in remittance inflows. According to Bangladesh Bank, from July 2025 to October 2025, migrant workers sent over $10 billion back home. The monthly breakdown shows $247.78 million in July, $242.19 million in August, $268.58 million in September, and $256.34 million in October. This represents a significant rise compared to previous fiscal years, with total remittance for 2024-25 reaching $30.33 billion — up 26.8 percent from 2023-24.

The steady inflow of remittance has provided some relief to foreign currency reserves and supported domestic consumption. However, the central bank and law enforcement authorities have expressed concern over illegal channels like hundi and the potential spread of counterfeit currency, especially ahead of elections. Coordinated monitoring efforts are underway to ensure remittance continues flowing through legitimate channels.

Despite these positive trends, inflation remains a persistent concern. Food and energy prices have kept household expenses high, and consumer confidence remains fragile. The Dhaka Stock Exchange has mirrored this cautious sentiment. Over the past week, the market lost more than Tk 8,500 crore in capitalization as the majority of listed companies saw their share prices decline. The DSEX fell 154 points, a 3 percent drop, reflecting investor worries over both domestic and global factors.

Experts say the stock market volatility is partly linked to concerns about political uncertainty and global pressures, including declining exports from China and cautious investment in technology sectors. Analysts emphasize that while the short-term outlook shows fluctuations, long-term stability depends on sustained policy reforms and improved governance.

Since taking office, the interim government has prioritized reform to stabilize the economy. Key measures include strengthening regulatory oversight of the banking sector, launching initiatives to boost transparency, and encouraging investment in infrastructure and industry. Bangladesh Bank’s recent handling of five non-viable Shariah-based banks — merging them into a single entity while protecting depositors’ funds — demonstrates a cautious but proactive approach to financial sector stability.

The government has also focused on promoting foreign investment. Japanese companies, for instance, continue to show strong interest in Bangladesh, expanding operations in sectors from chemicals to consumer goods. JETRO reports that over 57 percent of Japanese companies operating here plan to increase investment, reflecting confidence in the country’s domestic market potential.

Economists argue that the economy is at a pivotal moment. Remittance inflows, strong investor interest, and reform initiatives are positive indicators. Yet inflationary pressures, stock market volatility, and risks from illegal financial practices such as hundi and counterfeit currency pose real challenges.

Dr Helal Ahmed, a senior research fellow at Change Initiative, notes, “The interim government is laying the groundwork for sustainable growth. Ensuring that remittances reach the formal economy and that financial institutions remain robust is crucial ahead of the national elections.” He emphasizes that public awareness campaigns and bank-led initiatives are vital to protect both individual wealth and national economic stability.

As Bangladesh moves toward elections in early 2026, economic actors are closely monitoring the political environment. A credible, stable political framework could further encourage investment and consumption, boosting economic resilience. Meanwhile, central bank campaigns promoting cashless transactions aim to limit the circulation of counterfeit currency and illegal financial activity, ensuring that the gains from rising remittance and investment are preserved.

In the words of Bangladesh Bank officials, “We are cautiously optimistic. The economy is showing resilience, but careful monitoring and active reforms are essential to keep the momentum alive.”

For citizens and investors alike, the message is clear: vigilance, transparency, and adherence to formal channels will determine how effectively Bangladesh navigates its path from economic uncertainty to sustainable growth.