Analysts say the current border skirmishes between China and India is a result of China’s pushback instinct against India’s construction of military infrastructure in border areas in recent years.China has been concerned at Indian road building along the line of control (LAC) in Ladakh area particularly one road that was completed last year that essentially allows connectivity from Leh, the capital of Ladakh, all the way to Karakoram Pass.The 255km (158-mile) Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldie (DSDBO) road was inaugurated last year. China has objected to the extension of a branch of the DSDBO.
China’s economic corridor to Pakistan and Central Asia passes through Karakoram, which is close to the Galwan Valley. The disputed area is close to the Aksai Chin plateau, which is under Chinese control but claimed by India.”Ladakh and eastern Ladakh is crucial for China’s access to Central Asia and CPEC project with Pakistan in which they [China] have invested billions of dollars [about $60bn],” said Happymon Jacob, professor of international relations at Jawaharlal Nehru University based in New Delhi.
China is worried about it [India’s border military infrastructure] because you have a situation where China has lots of interests in that particular region. Analysts believe geopolitics is at play with China, a rising superpower, taking on India. This is the message that China is trying to convey through this confrontation to the other states .
New Delhi’s decision to revoke the special status of Indian-administered Kashmir last August also angered Beijing. Indian defence experts say China demanded New Delhi reverse its decision on the status of Kashmir.India repealed Article 370 of its constitution that guaranteed a measure of autonomy to Kashmir and subsequently carved out Ladakh from Kashmir and made it into a federally-administered territory.China, along with its close ally Pakistan, condemned India’s move and raised the issue at the UN Security Council (UNSC). Analysts say geopolitical factors played a role in the latest escalation. Any conversation about Chinese motivation for its recent provocation has to address the repeal of Article 370.
Beijing responded strongly and quickly after India made that move last year. China looks at [the] Article 370 repeal similarly to Pakistan that India made a unilateral move that affected territory China claims as its own. The Article 370 is very much a part of China’s broader thinking,.
The other major geopolitical factor at play is the US-India-China triangle.While the US-China relationship has been collapsing, the US-India relationship has been rapidly growing. It seems China understands that. Its message to India: If you want to get closer to my rival, that’s fine, but look what we can do to you in return.
Jacob also said India should reach out to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, known as Quad, with Japan and Australia. India and the US are the other members of this group.”If the USA makes noises in favour of India and strengthens the Quad, it will send a message to China that we will take aggressive steps and will defend our interest,” he said.”They [Quad] should conduct more joint military exercises in the Indian ocean region where Chinese have major economic and commercial interests,” he said.”Even ifthey [the US] share a fraction of information with India, the Indian planning vis a vis Chinese will improve drastically,” he added.
As the two sides prepare for dialogue, their entrenched positions on controlling strategic areas in one of the harshest frontiers in the world might become an impediment to finding resolution to the border standoff.Galwan area – a key strategic junction – is particularly important for India due to its proximity to the Nubra valley, which is a feeder station for the Indian forces deployed in Siachen glacier.Pakistani forces are also deployed in parts of Siachen – dubbed the highest battlefield in the world at 6,000 metres (20,000 feet) above sea level.Jacob says China would demand concession from the Indian side. “They might say that Indian infrastructure in certain areas should not continue,” he said.Chinese control of Galwan Valley could in the future threaten India in Siachen glacier.
For Modi, his neighbourhood-first policy seems to be in tatters as it is now locked in border disputes with three of its neighbours, including its traditional friend Nepal. New Delhi and Kathmandu are engaged in what experts have called cartographic war over Indian maps showing parts of Neplase territory as India’s own. “There is no question about the fact that India neighbourhood policy in last few years have been in complete failure,” said Jacob.Even Bangladesh has issues with India after how ruling party leaders have been going on talking about Bangladeshi immigrants in India as ‘termites’.
“I think we are facing very tight situation at this point of time. On the one hand the major power in the region, China, is against India and on the other hand, smaller neighbours, which have been traditionally very friendly to India, are also negatively disposed to India. I think that is the major policy failure,” Jacob said.
