Md. Shahidul Haque, Bangkok, Thailand

Artificial intelligence (AI) could play an important role in boosting productivity, improving business efficiency, and creating new investment opportunities in the global economy. However, the benefits of this technology will not be realized overnight. It will take time for AI to be effectively adopted across different sectors of the economy. At the same time, effective policies will be needed to address technological changes, excessive market concentration, cybersecurity threats, and risks to financial stability. These opportunities and risks associated with AI in the global economy were discussed at a side event of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Annual Meetings.

On Friday, October 16, policymakers, central bank representatives, and technology-sector leaders discussed AI’s impact on productivity, employment, and economic stability at a panel discussion titled “AI and the Global Economy: From Risks to Opportunity” at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok, Thailand.

Speaking at the discussion, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the world was still at an early stage of AI adoption. Although some progress had been made in improving efficiency at the individual level, its transformative impact on the broader economy was not yet clear. While expectations surrounding new technologies often rise quickly, realizing their benefits takes time. AI is unlikely to be an exception.

The discussion was moderated by CNN anchor and correspondent Richard Quest. Other participants included Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Jack Clark, co-founder and Head of Policy at AI company Anthropic.

Current State of AI-Driven Productivity Growth

Discussing the current state of productivity growth through AI, Kristalina Georgieva said that early applications of the technology were already producing some improvements at the individual level. However, there had not yet been changes on a sufficiently large scale to bring about a significant transformation in the overall economy.

She said new technologies often generate high expectations at the outset, with people hoping to see benefits quickly. In reality, however, it takes time for technologies to spread, become integrated into the operations of different organizations, and be used effectively. As a result, disappointment may arise when the expected benefits do not materialize within a short period.

According to Georgieva, there is a risk of a gap emerging between excessive expectations about AI’s potential and its actual results. It is therefore necessary to move forward while considering the technology’s long-term potential.

The time required to realize the benefits of AI is also important for economic policymaking. There is no guarantee that overall productivity will increase immediately after a new technology is introduced. Organizations need to change their working methods, train employees, and integrate the technology with existing systems. Without these preparations, simply announcing the adoption of AI will not be enough to achieve the desired results.

Lessons from the Rise and Fall of Internet-Based Businesses

To explain AI’s potential and risks, the discussion also drew on the example of the rise and fall of internet-based businesses. In the late 1990s, internet and technology companies attracted substantial investment and generated enormous expectations. Subsequently, the collapse of the dot-com bubble caused many companies to fail, while investors suffered significant losses. Over the longer term, however, internet technology brought extensive changes to the economy and society.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said that when evaluating the success of a technology, the performance of individual companies must be considered separately from its impact on the broader economy.

He noted that the dot-com era had witnessed a major boom and subsequent collapse. Many companies failed to survive, and many investors lost money. Nevertheless, the internet proved to be an extraordinary technology that continued to boost productivity over time and delivered substantial benefits to society.

Macklem’s remarks highlighted that market booms and downturns do not necessarily eliminate a technology’s long-term potential. However, technological development must be managed in a way that helps avoid unnecessarily severe disruptions.

Similar risks exist with AI. Excessive expectations, massive investments, and the pursuit of quick profits could create market instability. Therefore, while encouraging AI innovation, it is also necessary to pay attention to investment-related and financial risks.

AI’s Distinctive Characteristics

Highlighting AI’s distinctive features, Jack Clark, co-founder and Head of Policy at Anthropic, said there was a fundamental difference between AI and conventional technologies.

He explained that when an organization purchases new equipment, a microscope, or a large computer, it generally needs to make separate preparations to put the equipment to use. AI systems, however, can begin providing assistance based on the nature of the work as soon as they are integrated into an organization.

According to Clark, this characteristic could allow organizations to increase productivity sooner than expected. AI does not function merely as a tool; it can also understand different types of tasks, carry them out, and support people's work processes.

He said that although the technology was still in an experimental stage, its use was already spreading on a large scale in certain areas. Large organizations were beginning to see positive results from using AI, and the effects of these changes could become more apparent in the coming years.

However, the extent to which AI can increase productivity in practice will depend on how organizations use the technology and how effectively they integrate it into their working processes.

From Chatbots to AI Agents

Jack Clark highlighted the importance of agent-based technology in making AI more effective. He said Anthropic was working to develop a general-purpose technology that could be used across a wide range of tasks worldwide. Developing easier ways to use the technology and finding new methods of increasing its productivity were also important parts of the company's work.

In this context, he discussed the use of AI agents beyond conventional chatbots. Rather than simply engaging in conversations with AI, agent-based systems are creating opportunities to complete specific tasks.

Using Anthropic’s Claude Code as an example, he said the move from a conventional chatbot interface to an agent-based interface was an effort to increase the technology’s productivity.

Such technologies can help employees work faster, complete multiple stages of complex tasks, and manage time-consuming processes. As a result, organizations may be able to use their employees’ time and resources more efficiently.

However, to take advantage of these benefits, it is also essential to verify AI-generated results, identify errors, and ensure human oversight in important decision-making processes.

Risks Associated with the Expansion of AI

Alongside AI’s potential, the discussion also brought several important risks associated with its expansion into focus. These include changes in the labour market, the concentration of technological advantages in the hands of a few large companies, cybersecurity threats, and risks to financial stability.

As AI adoption increases, some tasks can be completed more quickly and automatically. This may improve workers’ efficiency and productivity, but it could also change the nature of certain traditional jobs. It is therefore important to provide workers with opportunities for training and skills development so they can adapt to new technologies.

At the same time, access to the substantial computing power, data, and investment required to develop AI technology is not equally available to everyone. Since large technology companies have an advantage in these areas, questions may arise about market competition and the distribution of the benefits of technology.

AI also has important implications for cybersecurity. The technology can support security analysis and help identify suspicious activities. However, its misuse could also increase the risks of new forms of cyberattacks and fraud.

As the use of AI in financial institutions expands, there will also be a greater need to monitor data reliability, risk assessment, and decision-making processes.

For these reasons, AI development and adoption cannot be viewed solely as technological progress. Policies must also take into account the technology’s effects on the economy, employment, market competition, and the financial system.

New Opportunities for Bangladesh

The IMF’s discussion of AI also has significant implications for Bangladesh’s economy. From the country’s major export sector, the ready-made garment industry, to banking, agriculture, education, healthcare, and public administration, AI could create opportunities to improve productivity.

In the ready-made garment industry, AI can be used to analyse international market demand, plan production, inspect product quality, identify defects, and manage supply chains. This could create opportunities to reduce production costs, save time, and improve competitiveness in international markets.

AI could also become increasingly important in Bangladesh’s banking sector. The technology can help analyse customer transactions, identify suspicious financial activities, prevent fraud, and improve customer service. However, protecting customer privacy and ensuring transparency in financial decisions will be essential.

In agriculture, analysing information about weather conditions, soil quality, crop diseases, and production could help farmers make better decisions. In healthcare, AI could support diagnostic analysis, patient information management, and healthcare planning. In education, it could expand opportunities to develop learning materials tailored to students’ needs and improve their skills.

There is also potential for AI adoption in public administration. Using the technology for document management, data analysis, processing applications for public services, and identifying patterns in complaints could help accelerate service delivery.

However, accountability in government decision-making, data security, and the protection of citizens’ rights must be ensured.

Building Skills and Preparing for Change

Developing a skilled workforce is a major challenge for Bangladesh in realizing AI’s potential. Even as the use of technology expands, its benefits may remain limited if workers do not receive the necessary training.

Education and training systems should therefore place greater emphasis on digital skills, data analysis, technological competence, and critical thinking. At the same time, reliable digital infrastructure, data protection, and appropriate policies must be established to support AI adoption.

It is also important to ensure that small and medium-sized businesses have opportunities to use the technology. Otherwise, larger companies may benefit while smaller businesses fall behind.

Creating opportunities for workers to acquire new skills is equally important in addressing changes in the labour market. AI may reduce demand for certain types of work while creating opportunities for new jobs and professions. Timely measures in training, reskilling, and employment policy will be necessary to help workers adapt to these changes.

It is also important to ensure that the benefits of AI are not confined to the technology sector or large businesses. If the benefits reach a broader section of the population through higher productivity, improved services, and new employment opportunities, AI could make a more effective contribution to economic growth.

Turning AI’s Potential into Economic Benefits

An important message from the discussion at the IMF’s Annual Meetings was that although AI offers enormous potential, realizing its benefits requires realistic expectations, effective implementation, and long-term preparation.

Simply adopting the technology will not automatically increase productivity. AI must be effectively integrated into organizations, the workforce, and the broader economy.

This issue is equally important for Bangladesh. AI could help strengthen export competitiveness, improve the efficiency of public services, attract new investment, and increase workers’ productivity. However, without measures to address technological risks, develop skilled workers, and ensure equal access to opportunities, its benefits may remain limited.

As the world moves towards an AI-driven economy, Bangladesh faces the challenge of adapting to technological changes in a timely manner. At the same time, it is necessary to ensure that AI adoption complements economic stability, employment, and social welfare.

Rather than relying on immediate results from the technology, prioritizing the development of long-term capabilities will be an important condition for turning AI’s potential into tangible economic benefits.