How USA Led NATO Force came to Afghanistan:

1.

Afghanistan is easy to invade, difficult to conquer and impossible to role by any foreign power.

British were compelled to give independence to Afghanistan in 1919. Afghanistan was at its best in development in all indexes during 1960 under the leadership of King Zahir Shah. In 1971 Daoud khan revolted and became President of Afghanistan. In 1978 there was another counter revolt by the communist party in Afghanistan. The new government was formed but faced lots of challenges with land reform which is the basic of the communist party (soviet version). In 1979 Soviet sent the army to Afghanistan to establish the communist government but they were defeated and withdrawn in 1989, which led to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

As retaliation of the twin tower attack by Al-Quaida on 11 September 2001, the USA led allied forces carried out “Operation Enduring Freedom” from 2001-2014  in Afghanistan. The USA asked the world, either you are with us or against us. Similarly, 49 countries have undertaken a task under the umbrella of NATO under the name of the International Security Assistance Force, as required by America’s war against terrorism strategy.  ISAF was established by the UN Security Council in December 2001 by Resolution 1386.

Achievement of The USA Led NATO Forces in 20 Years in Afghanistan:

2.

The US-led Coalition removed the Taliban from power and temporarily drove out Al-Qaeda. To achieve this more than 3,500 foreign troops and over 100,000 civilians have been killed in this war. The cost of this 20-year military and security engagement has been astronomically high – in lives, in livelihoods and in money. The estimated financial cost to the US taxpayer is close to a staggering US$1 trillion. Twenty years on, the country is still not at peace. Trump administration wanted to stop the loss in Afghanistan issue, they advocated that the country is in a better place than it was in 2001, and the Taliban have become more open-minded.

According to the Taliban’s agreement with the Trump administration, all foreign armed forces were supposed to leave Afghanistan by 1 May 2021. However, the Biden administration extended this period until September 11 and they declared that the withdrawal would be completed on this symbolic day.

The fact remains, The USA  came to Afghanistan to bomb the Taliban and got rid of their regime – but now they are leaving when the Taliban are so empowered that they will take over any time soon. The withdrawal of NATO troops has already developed a security void,The Taliban have overrun nearly 40 districts across the country. Out of 387 districts in Afghanistan, the fighting is ongoing in 116 districts in the country.”

Problems in Afghanistan after The Repatriation of The USA Led NATO Forces:

3.

History says Taliban came into power in Afghanistan after the repatriation of Soviet Forces. A designated terrorist group Al-Qaeda, was able to establish, set up terrorist training camps and recruited jihadists in Afghanistan. Similarly, ISIS raised in Iraq after the repatriation of the US forces from Iraq. Now after the repatriation of NATO forces in 11 September 2021 there might be again raised of terror, Dayesh can the name of the new game.

Taliban may topple President Ashraf Gani and took over Afghanistan. Sharia Law will be established and the country could revert into the breeding ground for extremism as it was in the 1990s.

There might be a new wave of Foreign Terrorist Fighters from the West travelling to Afghanistan for terrorist training like ISIS. The West may not be able to deal with it because the abandonment of Afghanistan will have already been completed.

Al-Qaeda, Islamic State (IS), Dayes and other militant groups have not disappeared from Afghanistan; they are encouraged by the imminent departure of the last remaining NATO forces. If Jihadi militant group take good hold in Afghanistan, The USA may interfere again in the name of the fight against terrorist, The USA may find new country in middle Asia of South Asia which is rich in mineral resources or good geographical location.

Afghanistan is now at the brink of a civil war, as chaos has not yet come to an end. Even though the present Afghan government wants Turkey to stay but the Taliban stated Turkey is a NATO member and should withdraw along with other NATO members.

Turkey may come out as a new leader of this region and operate in Afghanistan. Last 20 years turkey was not engaged in a combat role. For this new combat role to start Turkey requires logistical, financial, political, and troop support from the US and other NATO member states. Utilizing political support, Turkey is in needs to have a legitimization as to the international law from the UN and NATO to have troops in the region.

The Afghani interpreters and employees who helped the NATO forces during the last 20 years they and their families are likely to face the consequence. Taliban will not spare them, in terms of retaliation there might be a civil war in Afghanistan.

There will be a rise in the case of  asylum seekers in EU countries from Afghanistan. It will be very difficult to demark who Afghani is and who is Taliban or Al-Quida. So the security of EU countries will be also at risk in future.

Risk for Asian Countries:

 4.

Opium trade, sex trade, child labour, forced labour, drugs and human trafficking will boost in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of NATO forces. Taleban may sell Afghani people to Uzbekistan as force cotton labour. Afghanistan will be the golden triangle of crimes in central Asia.

Pakistan may be a prime target of Al-Quida attack to take revenge for the killing of Osama Bin Laden. Laden’s safe heaven was in Pakistan but compromised. The US army carried out “Operation Neptune Spear” and killer Osama in Abbottabad, Pakistan.

There will be a raise in abduction so the travel and tourism sector of the Central Asia region will suffer. NGO and humanitarian activities will come to a halt as a result human development index will be a downfall.

Because of religious differences with the Taliban, Indian help and investment in Afghanistan will be in threat. Such as Salma Dam, Parliament Building, Chabahar Port etc.

Possibilities of Afghanistan after NATO Forces Repatriation:

5.

After the departure of the USA led NATO Forces there will certainly be a vacuum to fill, instead of violence, it may be filled by  China’s development strategy. Afghanistan can be a gateway for China to connect with Eurasia, Middle East and South Asia.

Already China has launched some strategic projects, including the construction of Taxkorgan airport. China is also the builder and operator of Gwadar seaport in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, also bordering Afghanistan. Both Taxkorgan and Gwadar are being developed under CPEC. The steady and sustainable progress of all these development projects has started changing the mindset of Afghans, they are now thinking of a safe future for their next-generation instead of land mines, bombs, corruption and illiteracy. There’s no doubt that the strategic assets in Taxkorgan, Wakhan and Gwadar will strengthen China’s logistical infrastructure, helping it achieve its long-term economic and security objectives in the region.

China has been keen on extending its Belt and Road Initiatives( BRI) to Afghanistan and has been asking Kabul to join it for at least half a decade. But the U.S-backed Afghan government was hesitant to join BRI, in light of the U.S. exit, Beijing might be in a good position to pick up where they left off and push Kabul to join the BRI.

China could achieve more success than the U.S. in Afghanistan given its close ties with and enormous leverage over Pakistan. China could well bring the Taliban and other tribes on board with BRI. The groups have said they will support development projects if they serve the Afghan national interest. If the Taliban is okay with China building out infrastructure and other projects in Afghanistan, Beijing will be in a much better place.

Peace through development may be the actual key to China’s master plan for a post-U.S. Afghanistan. Afghanistan is a  region always caught between ‘Great Powers,’ Central Asia finds itself in a familiarly convoluted and precarious position. Much of the future of the region will depend on the level of U.S. engagement following its withdrawal from Afghanistan, whilst China will continue to grapple for influence. This volatile nation of Central Asia has many adventures to offer to the world in the coming days.

Writer: Squadron Leader (Rtd)  Sadrul Ahmed Khan, Member, Bangladesh Awami League, Finance and Planning Affairs Sub-Committee