USA to sustain as the only superpower

Publish: 7:19 PM, July 14, 2020 | Update: 7:19 PM, July 14, 2020

Recently, there has been a lot of speculation in the media and think tanks that suggest the loss of superpower status imminently by the USA. But a closer look dispassionately will show up the superficiality or overthinking in these aspects as the realities won’t quite match the real existing global environment. Despite the shrilly allegations of US imperialism, let us not forget that the USA in the Second World War period has been the only true beacon of true democracy, human rights and a force for maintaining international peace and security. No knowledgeable person can quite deny the role of the USA in the post World War II period in founding the United Nations or the UN system. The UN system as a whole has been working as a catalyst in promoting an universal civilized order round the globe countering any drift towards a chaotic world order. It is practically inconceivable that any other country would be prepared to replace the USA as an idealistic promoter of peace and humanity. The role of USA in Kosovo is an example.

Also, the United States has a huge lead by the most important measures of national power. China is the only country that comes close, and America still has three times China’s wealth and five times its military capabilities. That gap would take decades to close even if things go badly for the United States.

Second, things probably won’t go badly for the United States, at least relatively speaking, because it has the best long-term economic growth prospects among the major powers. Economists have shown that long-run growth depends on a country’s geography, demography, and political institutions. The United States has an edge in all three categories. Geographically, the United States is a natural economic hub and military fortress. It’s packed with resources and has more economic arteries like navigable waterways and ports than the rest of the world combined. Its only neighbors are Canada and Mexico. China, by contrast, has burned through its resources and is surrounded by nineteen countries, many of which are hostile or unstable, and ten of which still claim parts of China’s territory as their own.

Demographically, America is the only nation that is simultaneously big, young, and highly educated. The U.S. workforce is the third largest, second youngest, most educated in years of schooling, and most productive among the major powers-and it is the only major workforce that will grow throughout this century. China, by contrast, will lose 200 million workers over the next thirty years and add 300 million senior citizens. More than two-thirds of China’s workers lack a high school education; and one-third of Chinese young people entering the workforce have an IQ below 90.

Institutionally, the United States is a mess, but China’s system is worse. The United States today may appear like a flawed democracy, but China is an oligarchy ruled by a dictator for life. Special interests drag down U.S. growth and fuel corruption and inequality, but the Chinese Communist Party systematically sacrifices economic efficiency and promotes corruption and inequality to maintain political control.

Russia threatens many U.S. interests-it menaces U.S. allies, props up U.S. adversaries such as Iran and Syria, murders pro-democracy advocates, meddles in elections, and has recently seized foreign territory near its borders-but Russia is not poised to become a rival superpower like the Soviet Union was.

Russia’s military budget is ten times smaller than America’s. Its population will shrink over the next thirty years. Russia has no meaningful allies, and it faces NATO, the most powerful alliance in history, on its borders. The United States needs to worry about Russia’s-especially its election meddling and paramilitary encroachments in the Baltics-but it can do so without gearing up for another Cold War.

China and Russia seem to have become united in their opposition to the U.S. Will that create a new power balance? Russia and China will never form a genuine alliance. They share a 2,600-mile border, compete for influence across Eurasia, and sell arms to each other’s adversaries. But Russia and China still harm U.S. interests by acting in concert on a limited set of issues.

What’s the value of being the world’s sole superpower?
One benefit is security. As the only country that can carry out a major war abroad, the United States has the luxury of dealing with foreign threats “over there,” far from its homeland, and keeping death and destruction at arm’s length. It is impossible to overstate how lucky Americans are that none of the major battles in any of the wars of the past 150 years were fought in their cities and towns.

Another benefit is a large margin of error. With a secure homeland and a peerless economy, the United States can do stupid things over and over again without suffering severe punishment. Only the United States could engage in a war as dubious as that in Iraq or trigger the worst global economic crisis since the Great Depression, and remain the richest and most influential country on the planet and retain the support of more than sixty allies, including most of the major powers.

A related benefit is freedom of action. The United States can decisively involve itself in any region of the world-or not. Most countries have foreign policy priorities thrust upon them. They are too weak to settle issues in their own neighborhoods and have to spend most of their time doing damage control around their borders. Russia, for example, can’t ignore NATO or EU expansion in eastern Europe.

Similarly, China can’t ignore unrest in Hong Kong, separatism in Taiwan, North Korea’s nuclear weapons, or any of the ten countries that currently claim Chinese territory. As a superpower, the United States has much more leeway to choose where, how, and on what issues it wants to involve itself.

Freedom of action also applies to U.S. citizens. Americans often take for granted that they can travel and do business in many parts of the world using English and dollars and that many international trade and investment rules-and parts of the legal systems of some countries-are based on, if not directly copied from, U.S. law. The U.S. government has many strings it can pull to protect U.S. citizens and their property abroad, too. These privileges all stem from the fact that the United States shapes international customs and institutions.

Finally, the United States gets economic kickbacks from being a superpower. Other countries help finance its debt-because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency and the United States is an especially secure and profitable place to invest-and they are often eager to sign favorable trade and investment deals with it to gain access to the U.S. market and technology or to garner U.S. diplomatic backing or military protection. Perhaps most important, the dominant position the United States holds in the world economy attracts young smart people from all over the world, and the resulting influx of immigrants continually rejuvenates the U.S. workforce.

The United States is much more powerful than past lead states. With 5 percent of the world’s population, the United States accounts for 25 percent of global wealth, 35 percent of world innovation, and 40 percent of global military spending. It is home to nearly 600 of the world’s 2,000 most profitable companies and fifty of the top 100 universities.

It has sixty-eight formal allies, and it is the only country that can fight major wars beyond its home region, with 587 bases scattered across forty-two countries. Yale historian Paul Kennedy conducted a famous study comparing great powers over the past five hundred years and concluded: “Nothing has ever existed like this disparity of power; nothing.” The United States is, quite simply, “the greatest superpower ever.”