The gassing of innocent civilian – claiming 1,400 lives – has in fact accelerated the decline of the regime.
Despite the growing frustration over a lack of concrete action against Assad, we can see light at the end of the tunnel indicating the end of a brutal regime.
The gassing of innocent civilian – claiming 1,400 lives – has in fact accelerated the decline of the regime. The plan to strip him of strategic arms is in reality part of a grand scheme to remove him from power under a broader title of peaceful solution.
About two weeks ago, there were hushed up talks about a peaceful solution to the Syrian crisis that would see removal of Assad by the end of the current year i.e. five months prior to the general elections.
The Syrian issue is complicated and it is said: “When a crisis gets complicated, it inflates.”
We are witnessing a clash that is becoming increasingly complex with the presence of various political players and factors – the Russians versus the US on one hand and the Obama and the Congress on the other.
The West appears to be divided on this issue, with Britain categorically rejecting any military intervention.
There are Arab pressures as well where a trilateral front exists in the shape of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan, with their officials regularly shuttling between Paris, London, and Moscow. We cannot forget, however, that Obama has woken up from his slumber and has made a promise for the first time since taking office to use force. Meanwhile, Russia has surprised us by offering to have Assad give up his large chemical weapons arsenal. All these developments lead to one place i.e. Geneva to negotiate a peaceful solution. This political hubbub is not only the result of the chemical attacks but also due to Assad’s failure in the ongoing civil war. Despite great military efforts and huge support from Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and Iraqi factions, the regime barely managed to regain a few towns from the opposition.
We say to the opposition what football coaches usually say: “Keep your eyes on the ball.” They should only focus on their ultimate goal – overthrow of Assad -and don’t allow other developments distract them.
In a bid to prolong his rule, Assad will definitely try to distract the world using many tricks, as he now stands on the edge after he has been pushed by the Free Syrian Army and can possibly negotiate a “peaceful solution”.
The opposition is angry because there will be no military action, which is wrong because the goal is greater than that.
The opposition should work to ensure his removal from power and should not wait for Tomahawk missiles. If the Russians agree to his ouster, this will mean triumph of the Syrian revolution.
It is expected that the “Yemeni Solution” will once again be presented, which calls for complete removal of Assad, and the repositioning of the existing institutions, particularly the army, under the leaders of the opposition’s military and political leaders. These leaders would manage the country, and this is a good solution to dissolve the regime gradually without the collapse of the country.
The worst-case scenario is that Assad would escape during the next few months, but fighting would continue and transform into a multi-polar war involving the Free Syrian army, the independent revolutionary forces, Al-Qaeda, and the sectarian militias backed by Iran and others. Protecting the institutions means protecting the state, not the regime, and it means protecting the unity of the country and guaranteeing international military, political and legal support.
In order for the armed opposition not lose their cause as a major power during negotiations in Geneva, its main goal should remain to win the war on the ground because this victory is what will force all parties to accept the opposition as the main player. Through these victories on the ground, the opposition can direct the path of the timing and form of the political solution.